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DSC_0049me doing a psa on how exactly *not* to hold a day old goat to make if feel safe and secure :-Oday 3649: finally flying the kite aerial photography rig! VIII.day 3649: finally flying the kite aerial photography rig! VII.day 3649: finally flying the kite aerial photography rig! VI.day 3649: finally flying the kite aerial photography rig! V.day 3649: finally flying the kite aerial photography rig! IV.day 3649: finally flying the kite aerial photography rig! III.day 3649: finally flying the kite aerial photography rig! II.day 3649: finally flying the kite aerial photography rig! I.

you’re probably overconfident about the 50% of the facts you know which are actually wrong.

i never tire of reading about the cognitive basis for irrationality with one of my favorite cognitive biases being the overconfidence effect where, generally speaking, even when you’re 100% certain in something you’re probably only actually correct 80% about of the time. to make matters even more uncertain, new facts are piling up at an astonishing rate and half the facts you know are probably wrong!


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