snowdeal.org

the shelterwood field notes are gorgeous!inaugural grillageholy hail!day 3558: two birds in the hand...day 3558: and yet still more hockey.day 3557: attempting to teach frida to not eat The New Girls. VI.day 3557: attempting to teach frida to not eat The New Girls. V.day 3557: attempting to teach frida to not eat The New Girls. IV.day 3557: attempting to teach frida to not eat The New Girls. III.day 3557: attempting to teach frida to not eat The New Girls. II.

you’re probably overconfident about the 50% of the facts you know which are actually wrong.

i never tire of reading about the cognitive basis for irrationality with one of my favorite cognitive biases being the overconfidence effect where, generally speaking, even when you’re 100% certain in something you’re probably only actually correct 80% about of the time. to make matters even more uncertain, new facts are piling up at an astonishing rate and half the facts you know are probably wrong!


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