i actually ‘scooped’ slashdot this weekend by posting this. the new york times is now running a story on bill joy’s dire predictions. my take? i agree with microsoft?! from the times story:
“Nathan Myhrvold, a physicist who is on leave from his job as the chief technology officer at Microsoft Corp., said in an e-mail interview, “People have made apocalyptic predictions about technology constantly for as long as there has been technology. I think it is because change frightens them. What is more, the most common form these dire predictions take is ‘this next generation of stuff — wow! that is really different and really scary.'””
that’s not to say that i don’t agree wholeheartedly with many of joy’s comments:
“In the telephone interview last week, Joy said he doubted that the development of advances could be reined in in the commercial world, and he criticized scientists as being largely silent on the inherently destructive potential of rapidly evolving technologies.
Asked if he thought a technological species could expect to survive the ever-accelerating evolution of its market-driven technologies, Joy said: “The answer is ‘yes, but not without additional care.’ I think it’s possible — but it’s not a given. Survival won’t come for free.” ”