The New York Times Modigliani's Message: It's a Bubble, and Bubbles Will Burst
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"FRANCO MODIGLIANI says that the current mania for Internet and other technology stocks is not irrational. But it is a bubble, and it will burst.
"I can show, really precisely, that there are two warranted prices for a share," Dr. Modigliani said in a telephone interview. The one he prefers is based on such fundamentals as earnings and growth rates. But, he added, "The bubble is rational in a certain sense." The expectation of growth "produces the growth, which confirms the expectation; people will buy it because it went up."
The trouble, he said, is that the bubble price is naturally unstable. It can keep rising only so long as expectations keep growing. "But once you are convinced it is not growing anymore, nobody wants to hold a stock because it is overvalued. Everybody wants to get out and it collapses, beyond the fundamentals." "
The Motley Fool An Investing Tiger Calls It Quits
""[I]n an irrational market, where earnings and price considerations take a back seat to mouse clicks and momentum, [our] logic, as we have learned, does not count for much.... What I do know is that there is no point in subjecting our investors to risk in a market which I frankly do not understand.""
Arianna Onlilne Tarnish On A New Gilded Age
"At the same time that Fed chairman Alan Greenspan is doing his level best to keep the bullet-train economy on track, increasing numbers of major news stories are appearing on the plight of the poor...Could this sudden explosion of stories on the invisible poor be, as the first swallows are to spring, a harbinger of an economic downturn that we refuse to even contemplate? Are the mainstream media tapping into an inchoate fear among the multitude of debt-laden, savings-strapped, middle-class Americans that "there but for the grace of God and tech stocks go I"?"
BBC News Demon settles net libel caseSalon Cassandra complex
"Laurence Godfrey will be paid £15,000 plus legal costs - which could top £200,000 - by Demon Internet after allegedly defamatory postings about him appeared in newsgroups.
Nick Arnold, an information technology litigator from Tarlow Lyons, told BBC Breakfast News: "This will be the benchmark for all future cases." He said it raised the issue of whether ISPs would be responsible for monitoring all the material trafficking through their system. He added: "For the larger ones it is going to be almost impossible for them to do so without putting enormous resources into their infrastructure."
redux [03.16.00]
The New York Times Billionaire Plans Online University
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"A 35-year-old software billionaire said yesterday that he would spend $100 million to realize his vision of 21st century higher education: a giant free Web site that would provide access to what he calls the "10,000 greatest minds of our time," in lectures and interviews recorded especially for the venture."
"Mr. Saylor imagines that his company's future lies in a world where the Jetsons would feel at home: personally-tailored information -- like a disembodied voice reporting that a doctor's appointment or flight has been canceled -- that would be broadcast directly to people through their car radios and cellular phones, which would then offer them an instant opportunity to respond.
Wall Street, at least, thinks it is hardly science fiction: MicroStrategy's stock has rocketed in less than a year from $7 a share to nearly $268.625 at the market's close yesterday."
The Guardian Students on silicon campus
"Universities are dead. Campuses are defunct and everyone gets their degree online. Welcome to the future. Or is it? It's a spectre that haunts the education system, and it is already sending ripples of change through the world's learning communities."
The US Patent Office BUSINESS METHODS PATENT INITIATIVE: AN ACTION PLAN
redux [02.28.00]
The Industry Standard Amazon.com Patents Enemy-Making Process
""Question: When did the media stop seeing Amazon.com (AMZN) as an e-commerce hero and start seeing it as a corporate bully for which, in the words of San Jose Mercury columnist Dan Gillmor, "arrogance and greed seem limitless"?"" "
BBC 'Single mutation led to language'
"A controversial new theory suggests that the power of speech and language resulted from a single mutation in the brain of one man who lived many tens of thousands of years ago.
The idea has been put forward by Professor Tim Crow, a respected psychiatrist from Oxford University, UK."
"These are important questions because they may help explain why H. sapiens flourished at the expense of all other human-like creatures such as the Neanderthals. A sophisticated form of have over his rivals."
redux [03.09.00]
The Industry Standard Stephen King: Content Provider?
"In a move being billed as the biggest market test to date, Stephen King's latest horror tale is being sold exclusively in eBook format. "Riding the Bullet" will be released for download March 14 at $2.50 a pop, and many in the media suggested that its performance would have great implications for the nascent online publishing industry."
Yahoo News ChiliSoft founder plans to give away most of windfall
"Charles Crystle, chairman and former chief executive of ChiliSoft, said today he plans to donate about $11 million of the $15 million he expects from the acquisition toward boosting high-tech education opportunities in Central America. Crystle stepped down as chief executive in November; he felt he was better suited to run start-ups and was just plain burnt out from trying to run an increasingly large company. "I was just dying," he said. "I weighed over 250 pounds and felt like hell. I was in a bad mood all the time. That was for a year and a half."
"My advice to people who are making a ton of money is to pass on the yacht, rent a boat and put money into social ventures," Crystle said."
The New York Times On the Web, as Elsewhere, Popularity Is Self-Reinforcing
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"On the World Wide Web, the rich are getting richer.
Bringing new statistical support to an increasingly common Internet wisdom, two Xerox Corp. researchers have found that the most popular Web sites command by far the biggest share of Internet traffic -- a signature of what economists refer to as "winner take all" markets. "
The Guardian Online Music industry is caught napping
" Shawn Fanning may look like a typical 19 year old American science student in a T-shirt and a university of Michigan baseball hat, and until last summer - when he unleashed his first ever attempt at writing computer code - he was. But in a few months, he has gone from being the kind of customer the music business cherishes to the creator of its latest headache.
The program Fanning wrote as a class software project, Napster, lets users turn their computers into servers for the purpose of swapping MP3 music files."
"Fanning, a musician himself, claims he envisioned the service would benefit indie bands making their MP3s available for download without going through intermediaries like MP3.com. Though Napster does not itself store or sell music, like MP3.com it is a means of distribution that isn't controlled by the record industry and gives control to consumers."
Salon The Napster Files
"The lesson of the Napster saga is that, once again, the powerful populist dynamics of the Internet's many-to-many architecture may surprise the moguls. Fast broadband connections mean that AOL Time Warner can pump its content at you and me; they also mean that you and I can share content with each other. Maybe doing so won't require an advanced engineering degree. Napster suggests it can be done pretty easily."
Business Week More Visas for High-Tech Workers May Be Inevitable
“High-tech managers desperate to fill vacancies with skilled labor from overseas may soon get relief -- and none too soon, claim most business groups. Prospects are improving for congressional passage this year of a bill that would allow more foreign high-tech workers to take jobs in the U.S. Supporters of the increase in so-called H-1B visas cite declining numbers of engineers and computer programmers graduating from U.S. colleges.
In a step toward relieving the problem, on Mar. 9 a bill sponsored by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and Senate Immigration subcommittee Chairman Spencer Abraham (R-Mich.) cleared the Judiciary panel by a 16-2 vote. The legislation would nearly double the number of foreign technically skilled immigrant workers allowed to enter the U.S. each year under a special visa. Final Senate action on the measure is expected this year, and the House is working on its own version of the legislation.
Labor unions and America-Firsters adamantly oppose any increase in H-1B visas. They contend that the solution to a high-tech labor shortage in the U.S. isn't to let in skilled immigrants but to improve the U.S. educational system so that Americans are better trained in math, science, and engineering skills."
Federal Computer Week Hacker-controlled tanks, planes and warships?
“Army officials are worried that sophisticated hackers and other cybercriminals, including military adversaries, may soon have the ability to hack their way into and take control of major military weapon systems such as tanks and ships."
"In fact, the Defense Department has already tested and proven that hackers have the ability to infiltrate the command and control systems of major weapons, including Navy warships. According to a training CD-ROM on information assurance, published by the Defense Information Systems Agency, an Air Force officer sitting in a hotel room in Boston used a laptop computer to hack into a Navy ship at sea and implant false navigation data into the ship’s steering system."
The Christian Science Monitor Wars of the future... today
“Take the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade several weeks ago. Rage spread across China and hackers from the mainland attacked the Web sites of the US Departments of Energy and the Interior, and the National Park Service. A subsequent attack brought down the White House Web site for three days. The attacks generated headlines across the country.
What the news media didn't report was that the US government had known for a long time that someone had been in its computer systems - they just didn't know who. Then, in a fit of anger, the Chinese hackers caused some real damage - and gave away the hidden "location" of several "backdoors" they had built in US government networks."
"The US Government Accounting Office estimates 120 groups or countries have or are developing information-warfare systems. According to a report issued by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 23 nations have cyber-targeted the US."
Freedom Forum AOL-Time Warner merger raises questions about journalism, concentrated ownership
“AOL has been ethically challenged throughout its existence,” wrote Mercury News technology columnist Dan Gillmor... “I hate to see Time Warner, which has had its own ethical troubles but generally shows high journalistic standards, fall into such hands."
"“[W]hen the biggest online company controls the biggest traditional media company, you'd be wise to turn to other sources for reliable information on, for example, e-commerce and its biggest players,” wrote Gillmor."
HMS Beagle Patenting Genes Is It Necessary and Is It Evil?
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"Last October, biologists' neck hair rose when J. Craig Venter announced his company, Celera, had filed 6,500 provisional patent applications for human genes. Henry Ford mass-produced automobiles - it seems evident we are now entering an era in which intellectual property is rolling off the assembly lines. Is this really the ultimate legacy of Watson and Crick's elegant double helix? And what does it portend for the future of biology?"
ZDNet Cash drought ahead for Net firms?
"At least 51 Internet firms will run out of cash within the next year, according to a Pegasus Research International study commissioned by Barron's and reported in its March 20 edition.
The report listed online music store CDNow Inc., network security company Secure Computing Corp., online health Web sites Drkoop.com Inc. and Medscape Inc., and online grocer Peapod Inc. as among companies likely to run out of funds soon."
redux [02.01.00]
News.com Stellar IPO prices fall despite e-commerce boom
"James Schrager, a professor at the University of Chicago's business school, is among the most blunt at summarizing the e-tailers' outlook. "Amazon's model doesn't work, the same with most e-commerce companies," Schrager said. "Amazon has discovered that the more they sell, the more they lose. All the numbers are going backwards."”
The New York Times E-Commerce the Japanese Way
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"Tucked amid the instant noodles, pantyhose and canned drinks at the local Lawson, Japan's second-largest convenience store chain, customers now find a computer terminal that gives them access to a system called Loppi. With a few stabs at the keyboard, they can order concert tickets, make train and plane reservations and pay at the cash register on the way out.
Need a book? Seven-Eleven Japan, the country's largest operator of convenience stores, lets a customer hop online to eShopping Books, a site owned by Softbank, Seven-Eleven, Yahoo! Japan and Tohan, Japan's leading book distributor. A day or so later, on the way home from work perhaps, the customer picks up the selection and pays for it at the local Seven-Eleven."
The New York Times Netscape Browser Faces a Changed World
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"...even as Netscape touts a series of features and technological improvements in the new browser, just as it has in years past, the entire field of the battle has changed under America Online."
As an independent company, Netscape's strategy was to use the browser to build a base of users that would help sell the server software that corporations use to create Web sites. In contrast, America Online, which has farmed out Netscape's server business to a joint venture run by Sun Microsystems called iPlanet, sees the browser as the key to a series of interactive consumer services.
So it is no surprise that many of the new features of the browser tie to America Online's strengths."
ZDNet The Rise and Fall of Netscape
"When Netscape employees first heard their company was going to be bought by America Online in November 1998, they worried whether their dogs would still be allowed in the office. A year and a half later, the dogs are still allowed, but little else is the same. Key executives and engineers cashed in their options and left, and the company that once was synonymous with the Web itself -- the pioneer of the Net as we know it -- is now merely the "at-work" arm of AOL's multi-brand media strategy.
"The merger has been a disaster," said Michael Cusumano, professor at MIT's Sloan School of Management and co-author of "Competing on Internet Time," which details Netscape's struggles in its now legendary browser war against Microsoft. "All the best engineers and managers have left. Sun has taken over the client software. ... They're no longer a player." "
Salon The return of the dead-tree media
"Analysts are comparing the merger of Times Mirror and the Tribune Company to AOL-Time Warner, but the combined company looks more like an industrial age holdout than a 21st century media giant."
Online Journalism Review ChicagoTribune.com: the Windy City as it happens
"At a time when most newspaper's online offices have all the energy of a morgue as a skeleton crew of editors funnel print and wire stories onto the Web, chicagotribune.com's newsroom pulses with adrenaline. Five days a week, six news reporters and six editors race to get original reporting onto the site as fast as local news breaks."
""It harkens back to that old tradition of great newspapering," says Interactive News Editor Thomas Cekay, a newspaper veteran seated at his desk near the middle of the action. "Have your coat nearby, because when news breaks, you're out the door.""
""...We see our function as being like an all-news radio station."'
redux [02.02.00]
First Monday Interactive Features of Online Papers
"According to McAdams, who helped create the Washington Post's online service, "A journalist with little online experience tends to think in terms of stories, news value, public service and things that are good to read, but a person with a lot of online experience thinks more about connection, organization, movement within and among sets of information and communication among different people". Journalists today must choose. As gatekeepers they can transfer lots of information, or they can make users a smarter, more active and questioning audience for news events and issues. Making users smarter means involving them in a collaborative experience; i.e. interaction ”
redux [03.12.00]
The Washinton Post From Internet Scientist, a Preview of Extinction
"A respected creator of the Information Age has written an extraordinary critique of accelerating technological change in which he suggests that new technologies could cause "something like extinction" of humankind within the next two generations.
The alarming prediction, intended to be provocative, is striking because it comes not from a critic of technology but rather from a man who invented much of it: Bill Joy, chief scientist and co-founder of Sun Microsystems Inc., the leading Web technology manufacturer."
Wired Magazine Why the future doesn't need us.
"Biological species almost never survive encounters with superior competitors. Ten million years ago, South and North America were separated by a sunken Panama isthmus. South America, like Australia today, was populated by marsupial mammals, including pouched equivalents of rats, deers, and tigers. When the isthmus connecting North and South America rose, it took only a few thousand years for the northern placental species, with slightly more effective metabolisms and reproductive and nervous systems, to displace and eliminate almost all the southern marsupials.
In a completely free marketplace, superior robots would surely affect humans as North American placentals affected South American marsupials (and as humans have affected countless species). Robotic industries would compete vigorously among themselves for matter, energy, and space, incidentally driving their price beyond human reach. Unable to afford the necessities of life, biological humans would be squeezed out of existence. "
redux [02.03.00]
NetFuture The Trouble with Ubiquitous Technology Pushers (Part 2)
"The subtitle of this series of articles is "Why We'd Be Better Off without the MIT Media Lab". Let me broaden that here. What we'd be better off without is every organization that pushes purely technological "solutions" as if they were what could make us better off.”
MSNBC Heavy traffic is overloading cable companies’ Net lines
"The cable industry’s rush to wire up America with high-speed Internet access is running into a serious problem: Too many heavy Internet users are crowding online at once, in some cases creating major bottlenecks and slowdowns."
The Guardian Students on silicon campus
"Universities are dead. Campuses are defunct and everyone gets their degree online. Welcome to the future. Or is it? It's a spectre that haunts the education system, and it is already sending ripples of change through the world's learning communities."
Slashdot A Free, High Quality On-Line University?
redux [03.11.00]
The New York Times Magazine Patently Absurd
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"When 21st-century historians look back at the breakdown of the United States patent system, they will see a turning point in the case of Jeff Bezos and Amazon.com and their special invention: "The patented One Click® feature," Bezos calls it."
"In ways that could not have been predicted even a few years ago, the patent system is in crisis. A series of unplanned mutations have transformed patents into a positive threat to the digital economy. The patent office has grown entangled in philosophical confusion of its own making; it has become a ferocious generator of litigation; and many technologists believe that it has begun to choke the very innovation it nourish."
redux [07.09.99]
Seattle Times Would-be Web giants go a little patent-happy
""It is a mad rush to get as many dumb patents as possible," said Gregg Aharonian, publisher of Internet Patent Service, a Web site that conducts patent searches."
Wired News Biotech Downturn Baffles Experts
"Tuesday's sell-off of shares in biotech companies demonstrated that the same buzzwords that draw investors can also turn them away."
redux [02.04.00]
The New York Times Magazine The Recycled Generation
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"After stuffing every cow egg with its little spud of human DNA, Sawyer prepares the next step. She gives the cells a zap of 120 volts. The jolt of electricity effectively fuses man and beast into a single biological fate. After one final step, this . . . this thing will believe it has been fertilized and, if all goes well, begin cleaving, or dividing, in the bubbling, momentous arithmetic of life lifting off the pad: 2 cells, 4 cells, 8 cells, 16 cells, 32 cells --"
Newsweek The Great Amazon Patent Debate
"You might think that Jeff Bezos would be on top of the world. The company he founded, Amazon.com, is sitting pretty on top of the e-commerce food chain. In an age consumed with millionaires, his stash can be measured in billions. His braying laugh has rung out on the Leno show; his beaming visage was on a certain newsweekly cover as 1999's alpha human. And he and his wife are momentarily expecting the arrival of a brand-new baby Bezos. But last week he sounded hurt at finding himself in an unfamiliar role: Internet villain. "
The Industry Standard Stephen King: Content Provider?
"In a move being billed as the biggest market test to date, Stephen King's latest horror tale is being sold exclusively in eBook format. "Riding the Bullet" will be released for download March 14 at $2.50 a pop, and many in the media suggested that its performance would have great implications for the nascent online publishing industry."
Alertbox Electronic Books - A Bad Idea
"Even when electronic books gain the same reading speed as print, they will still be a bad idea. Electronic text should not mimic the old medium and its linear ways. Page turning remains a bad interface, even when it can be done more conveniently than by clicking the mouse on a "next page" button. It is an insufficient goal to make computerized text as fast as print: we need to improve on the past, not simply match it.
The basic problem is that the book is too strong a metaphor: it tends to lead designers and writers astray. Electronic text should be based on interaction, hypertext linking, navigation, search, and connections to online services and continuous updates. These new-media capabilities allow for much more powerful user experiences than a linear flow of text. Linear text may have ruled the world since the Egyptians learned to produce arbitrarily long scrolls of papyrus, but it's time to end this tradition. Nobody has time to read long reports any more: information must be dynamic and under direct control of the reader, not the author."
Xerox Research and Technology A Comparison of Reading Paper and On-Line Documents
"We report on a laboratory study that compares reading from paper to reading on-line. Critical differences have to do with the major advantages paper offers in supporting annotation while reading, quick navigation, and flexibility of spatial layout. These, in turn, allow readers to deepen their understanding of the text, extract a sense of its structure, create a plan for writing, cross-refer to other documents, and interleave reading and writing. We discuss the design implications of these findings for the development of better reading technologies."
redux [02.23.00]
Feed Magazine Blurring The Work/Home Boundaries
"As the internet continues to blur the distinction between being at work and away from work, with personal email accessible at your desk and work email accessible from everywhere else, the workers of the world may find themselves in a Faustian bargain. Their subsidized home computer use may keep the economy growing, but they cannot protest against the demands an "always on" economy places on an "always connected" workforce."
Wired News AOL Ups German Access Ante
"AOL Europe announced Tuesday that it plans to give all German primary and secondary schools and 900,000 German schoolteachers free access to the Internet."
"It can never be too early to start communicating the necessary skills," [Chancellor Gerhard] Schroeder said."