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CNN: Study: Quake's first seconds may determine strength

CNN Study: Quake's first seconds may determine strength

"Scientists have found a way to estimate an earthquake's ultimate strength by analyzing the initial seconds of a rupture -- a step that could one day provide early earthquake warning."

"They say the information could possibly be used in an alert system to give seconds to tens of seconds of advance notice of an impending quake -- enough time for schoolchildren to take cover, power generators to trip off and valves to shut on pipelines."

redux [10.14.05]
Nature What could we have done?
"If scientists and engineers issue warnings that politicians neglect, as in August's flood of New Orleans, the question becomes more about government priorities than about gaps in understanding.

But it seems that no scientist forecast the devastation around Muzaffarabad, where the death toll from a magnitude-7.6 earthquake on 8 October is currently about 30,000 and rising. Where, one might ask, was the science when it was needed?

Scientists knew, of course, that the Himalayas are a tectonically active region that earthquakes are bound to hit. And they knew that these earthquakes could be shallow, which increases their destructive effect on buildings. But could anyone have known exactly what was going to happen, and when?"

Guardian Unlimited Report dashes hopes for early warning system
"The failure of such a hi-tech effort to unravel any signals that could foretell the imminent quake suggests prediction of any earthquake is likely to be a pipe dream. "I don't know if it'll ever be possible with today's technology," said Dr Nadeau. While prediction is still a worthwhile research goal, the scientists urged countries at risk of earthquakes to instead invest in ways of mitigating the damage caused by shockwaves.

"It's not earthquakes that kill people, it's the way houses are built and whether they are built to withstand earthquakes, which is what we've seen in Pakistan," said Felix Waldhauser, a co-author on the paper at Columbia University, New York."

NPR: Science Friday Scientists Work to Predict Earthquakes
" In the wake of last week's massive and deadly earthquake on the Pakistan border, how likely is it that scientists could predict quakes?

Guests:

Donald Turcotte, professor of geology; University of California, Davis

William Bakun, geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey"

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CNN: Study: Quake's first seconds may determine strength

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