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conflux

The New York Times Hype and Anti-Hype
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"The Gartner Group consultants have developed a useful concept to describe the hype around new technologies, which they call the "hype cycle." As a new technology � like the Internet � is triggered, the hype curve soars upward until it reaches a peak of inflated expectations. Then it sinks almost straight down into a trough of disillusionment, as the less successful players drop out. And finally it climbs steadily upward again to a new stable plateau, as clear winners emerge and the new technology is absorbed, integrated and made profitable by people and industries that understand it."

News.Com Survey finds many can live without wireless Web
"The wireless Web has arrived, making it possible to get vast quantities of Internet content over the tiniest portable devices, but most consumers do not seem too impressed, an international survey released Thursday showed.

For all the hype over the cutting-edge technology that provides "any time, anywhere" connections to the Internet, the survey found that adoption rates have been slow, even among the most wired people."

"Less than 1 percent of those surveyed were shopping online with their wireless devices, one of the biggest expected uses for the Web-enabled gadgets."

redux [06.17.00]
ComputerWorld Report debunks early potential of wireless e-commerce
"Anyone planning to make a fortune in mobile e-commerce � the new-millennium version of last year's dot-com frenzy � should think twice about where to invest their money, according to a hype-busting report from Ovum Inc., a Boston-based consulting firm."

"The report discounts consumer interest in new mobile wireless services, warning wireless-wannabes to focus on business users and "genuinely unique" consumer services. Dennis Brown, co-author of the Ovum report, said that even business users "won't pay a premium for existing (wireless) services, which are easier and cheaper to access using their phone or PC . . . if suppliers are to survive and prosper in the long term, their early offerings will have to be very targeted and very compelling.""
Infoworld Oh the horror, the horror: The new world of wireless commerce runs amok
"Stop and ask yourself: "Just because we're developing the capability of purchasing via mobile systems, does that really mean people are going to develop a sudden and inexplicable Pavlovian desire to buy all the time?" Do we really expect the world to be gripped by the same fever that drives the Home Shopping Network? My bank account just happens to be a few orders of magnitude smaller than Bill Gates', so I actually don't want to spend money all the time."

"M-commerce -- no, make that successful m-commerce -- will not be about purchases. M-commerce will be about providing information which facilitates a purchase. Don't think commerce, think communication. There's a Grand Canyon-sized gap between those two ideas. It's the difference between offering a gadget for sale via handheld and giving access to information about that gadget -- the reviews, who's put it on their Christmas list, etc. -- and the ability to make a note to one's self: "Check this out, I might want it.""

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[ rhetoric ]

“"You're not a designer, you're not a writer, and you're not an editor!"

Well, no, blogger, you're not. And therein lies your gift. Because even if it's true the vast majority of blogs would not be missed by more than a handful of people were the earth to open up and swallow them, and even if the best are still no substitute for the sustained attention of literary or journalistic works, it's also true that sustained attention is not what Web logs are about anyway. At their most interesting they embody something that exceeds attention, and transforms it: They are constructed from and pay implicit tribute to a peculiarly contemporary sort of wonder.

...[T]he Web log reflects our own attempts to assimilate the glut of immaterial data loosed upon us by the "discovery" of the networked world. And there are surely lessons for us in the parallel. For just as the cabinet of wonders took centuries to evolve into the more orderly, logically crystalline museum, so it may be a while before the chaos of the Web submits to any very tidy scheme of organization.”

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